topleft
TiVo, RIP
Posted: Tuesday February 6, 2007 at 3:05 am
Keywords: Simeon McMillan
I'm calling it now. TiVo (Ticker: TIVO) cannot survive in its current form. But before I write its obituary, let me reflect on its life of unfulfilled potential.

The notion that a little black box could record your favorite shows and replay them commercial-free was a revolutionary idea that continues to make advertisers soil themselves in fear that you won't buy their products. However, TiVo has failed miserably to live up to the hype. Looking around Penn's campus, I only see a few of these infamous boxes hanging around my friends' dorms.

In the midst of OCR season, even the most aspiring investment banker makes time for 24 and Grey's Anatomy. Students have turned to other means to get their weekly fix of Jack Bauer and unrealistically hot surgeons with issues. Now, that networks put their marquees shows on the internet, the concept of TiVo is not alluring.

TiVo sells DVRs, short for digital video recorders. These record and store live television to view later. Cable companies such as Comcast (Ticker: CMCSA) and satellite providers are increasingly installing this same hardware within their current equipment. Friends off-campus have been raving to me about all the shows, classic movies, and adult…"entertainment" they get with Comcast's digital cable. You don't have to be an engineer to understand there is no reason to pay TiVo premium subscription fee for technology you can get for less.

So what to do with a company whose only product is destined for obsolescence? Short the stock in the short term on any sudden increases in price. In other words, sell the stock now in the hopes you can repurchase it at a lower price and pocket the difference.

Trading at $5.68, the shares jumped 6% on the news of a licensing deal with Comcast to provide software to the cable company's set-top boxes. TiVo might have a pulse, but to survive in the long term, TiVo needs to get out of the hardware business and sell its brand along with its consumer-friendly software to someone such as Comcast who can put it to good use. With a market value of $549.69 million they could easily be acquired by a $90 billion behemoth such as Comcast, or the soon-to-become-public Time Warner Cable.

So instead of mourning the inevitable, let us rejoice over the memories TiVo brought us over the years replaying sports clips and "scandalous" half-time shows. If management can figure out a new business model, maybe this company can be reincarnated after all.

Interesting read
- Dianne
RIP TIVO!!!
- TIVO
Great column!
- John Smith
Interesting points, though I still think TIVO has some life left in it... in particular, for older, less tech-savvy people who don't want to change their cable plan and just want a box that lets them pause TV. It's nice in its simplicity in that way.
- Jason
Alas, poor Tivo. I knew him well.
- betty
That was very insightful. . I still have my TIVO sitting uselessly by my desk because it doesn’t work with the dorm cable…. L I really enjoyed reading this article. Keep up the good work.
- Sagar
I agree with Jason. TIVO may be making a downhill trend as far as new customers are concerned, but their current customer base (10-12 million systems) isn't going anywhere. TIVO customers are known for their loyalty, so as long as TIVO is out there, people will be using their service.
- Miguel
Buddy, You've lured me in. Now spell out how I, a mere college student, can short this. Share hte wealth buddy.
- puffypuff
great insights! This guys should be on Wall Street
- Alex
What? Does anyone care to explain how this is such great, unique insight? My 7-year-old brother could have told me that Tivo would only be successful for a short time, obviously the big guns were gonna step in soon enough. This peice may have shown foresight in like 2002.
- huh?
What about the competition Tivo is bound to get from new media? With networks beginning to embrace putting their shows online either on their own website (like ABC) or through others like iTunes, MySpace, etc, I think that's much more of a challenge than cable companies. Who needs more hardware?
- Jing
Tivo is still great for people who don't have access to Comcast's DVR, such as those who live in Hamilton Court and don't have a choice of cable provider.
- -Anon
Good insight.
- anonymous
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Simeon McMillan
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